Bayesian probabilistic projections of proportions with limited data: an application to subnational contraceptive method supply shares

Engaging the private sector in contraceptive method supply is critical for creating equitable, sustainable, and accessible healthcare systems. To achieve this, it is essential to understand where women obtain their modern contraceptives. While national-level estimates provide valuable insights into overall trends, they often obscure variation within and across subnational regions. To address this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical framework for probabilistic projections of contraceptive method supply shares in data-sparse settings.

arXiv